Shorting Coinbase for a BTC Hedge

$COIN $BTC

Here’s an overlay of COIN 0.00%↑ and $BTC for the year

Here’s the same chart zoomed out

COIN 0.00%↑ is up 160% since the calendar hit November 1st. I would never naked short sell it, outside of perhaps a day trade, but the volatility creates juiced options premiums. So I’m taking bets, via spreads, that COIN 0.00%↑ cools off in the first half of 2024. If I’m wrong, it probably means the value of my bitcoin long is appreciating. And if I’m right, it provides a hedge against the Bitcoin position.

Bitcoin is chopping around at a logical area. I don’t think we retest $36K here in the short to medium term. I expect it most likely that we hover in this range for a bit before taking on the challenge of clearing and holding $45K.