Risk-On Into Inauguration. Is It That Easy?

$SPY $DIA $QQQ $IWM $BTC $UVXY

Monday is a Federal Holiday with markets closed. Here’s where things stand -

With the exception of small-caps, major indexes are all back above the AVWAP’s from election day gap up. Bullish

$BTC looks like wants to retest prior highs. Bullish

Given the price action, it’s difficult to argue this anything but a long environment for risk assets. However, when things seem this easy, the market tends to remind us who is in charge.

The VIX has melted since Wednesday. I’m using the opportunity to hold insurance into the long weekend. I currently have a sub 20% cash position. It was twice that just a week ago. Respecting the levels has me overweight equities and $BTC again. Fortunately, insurance remains cheap, and I can hedge the portfolio with an instrument such as UVXY 0.00%↑ through this historic weekend. The best time to own insurance is when you believe you don’t need it.