Industry Bellwethers Breakdown
$XHB $XLRE $SMH $XLP
A look at what the market thinks of some of the economies most important sectors
Homebuilders - touched on this earlier this month. Not constructive (pun intended)
Look back (9/5) - https://732charts.substack.com/p/homebuilders-rejected-again
Real Estate (notably, commercial)
Semiconductors
Daily chart here, vs weeklies above. Semi’s haven’t registered an oversold reading yet, and that may prove to be a positive harbinger. There’s a lot of price memory around that 200 day (orange), and the .618 retracement. Will be watching for a hold near that range.
Consumer Staples
Staples have been weak since the end of July, and the XLP 0.00%↑ has proven to run out of gas in that mid 70’s range.
It’s important to reiterate that this is pretty normal seasonal price behavior, and as mentioned in the index overview from the weekend (https://732charts.substack.com/p/index-overview), it’s really about seeing whether a steeper breakdown occurs beyond this seasonal stretch, or if the market finds footing. The data certainly seems to be pointing to the former, though a bearish theme seems to be increasingly mainstream, which gives me pause. I’m personally overweight cash, selling call spreads, and tactically shorting over small timeframes (hourly and daily).